My official plays

[jcambert]

The Hulk. 5 days to $100mil at 7/2 odds, at Bodog.

The Hulk -22mil, +190 (posted last week).

Will be back later with more.

JP

 

[jcambert]

Just play the Hulk OVER $72.5 mil +110 at WSEX. It has since gone up to +130. Not sure about this line. It seems a bit off to me, to be honest, and, WSEX is usually pretty sharp with their lines. In addition, I refuse to believe that the UNDER is getting hammered hard, as the line movement would lead you to believe. Not sure what to make of this.

Either way, I think it's an EXCELLENT play.

JP

 

[Gillian]

WSEX is about as sharp as a WOODEN spoon.

Buddy, that's a weak line. It goes over that no problems.

 

[jcambert]

They usually are EXTREMELY sharp. They are probably the sharpest of all the books that post movie lines. Which is why this surprises me. But, take a look at the movement of the line. Apparently people have been hammering the under. Don't know why, though.

JP

 

[Oren1]

holy shit. WTF?! Could we be that off in our 85 million projections?!

can't go wrong with +140, I'll tell you this much, I won't be sweating this bet as much as past ones, I don't see how i's going to have any problems hitting 73 million. Weird.

 

[jcambert]

No, I don't think we are, honestly. Boxofficeguru predicting $75 and Boxofficereport predicting $82. I think this is almost too easy.

JP

 

[jcambert]

Just played the following at Intertops.

From Justin to Kelly. 7mil or OVER +140.

I don't love this play, but, there will be SOME turnout and considering that Boxofficereport is predicting 8mil, I felt there was some value here.

JP

 

[Oren1]

that looks like a decent wager, I'd predict 5 million for that one though. But I thought Dumb and Dumberer was going to do O.K. I hammered the Hulk, it's only +115 now, sorry guys!
Good luck.

(wsex)

 

[Oren1]

No way Olympic opens their line at this number. Might be another chance at a middle, but I think I'm going to have to stand firm on 85 million. It will depend on how many 20 somethings decide to skip this movie. I don't think it should have a problem drawing the younger crowd.

 

[Oren1]

Someone is hammering the under. The over is back to +120. Maybe it's just one idiot like Lee who thinks it's going to do 56 million. They are going to choke on their cereal come Saturday morning if it's Friday estimate ends up being around 30 million.

 

[Oren1]

it's back to +130. Someone's getting the

come Saturday.

 

[Oren1]

damn, the Hulk lost 37 point on the buzz index overnight. I don't know what that means, but it's only 5 overall now. (still the number 1 movie)

 

[jcambert]

Here's my reasoning on the "From Justin to Kelly" play. It's the type of movie that could bomb and make $3 mil, or, it could make $10mil. I figured, that, considering that boxofficereport predicted $8 mil, and boxofficeguru predicted $6, with an average of $7, that taking back +140 on the over was simply value. That's all. It's not a play that I love like I LOVE the over in the Hulk. It's simply value. That's all. And, if it doesn't come in, it doesn't ocme in.

JP

 

[Oren1]

Yeah I think with the huge audience American Idol has that movie has a good chance of being a modest sleeper hit. Check out Bodogs lines, they have fallen in line with WSEX. There must be a lot of Lee fans out there. It's crazy, most people would say 75 is the lower end of the spectrum for a movie of this calibur. I'm not going to sweat this one too much... Do these books know something that we don't?

 

[wtf]

I was thinking around $75m this weekend, but dont feel good about making a play either way so I will pass on this one.

Good Luck on your plays guys, hope it goes over for you.

 

[Oren1]

you can get 5-1 odds at over 85 at Bodog now. And the 3 days for 100 million is now only at 3/2, must have been some peeps out there that saw the value in the 10-1 or whatever it was before.

I have to stand firm on my stance that people predicting under 80 million could very well be underestimating the power of the Hulk trademark. This name carries a LOT of fans with it. 80 million is a lot to ask for a movie that hasn't genereated a lot of positive buzz from it's previews, but still... Spidey made what, 115 million? how in the hell are you going to say that the Hulk is going to make HALF of that?!

 

[Oren1]

I'm going to play over 85 at Bodog for a little bit also, at 6-1, I feel like I should have some "play money" coming to me here.

 

[SonofaGun]

under is still getting hammered for Hulk. +150 for the over.

 

[jcambert]

Bad news, guys. According to Brandon Gray of Boxofficemojo, the theater count is upwards of 3600, yes, but, the print count is down below 6000. To put it in perspective:

Matrix Reloaded: 8517
X2:7200+
Nemo:5695
Bruce Almighty:5500

As you can see, it's not in line with X2 and MR, which were the other huge name, blockbuster releases this summer.

JP

 

[jcambert]

Just Played AandE OVER 10mil, even money, at WSEX.

JP